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We happen to live nearly equidistant to four major malls and I periodically (usually twice a month) take the family out for a visit to one of them. While the kids entertain themselves with the various play areas and the wife does some shopping I like to observe the activity in the mall to try to get some investment ideas.
The first thing I notice as I drive around the mall is the density of cars in the parking lot and I usually take a look at what type of cars are there. The second thing I look at once inside the mall is what new stores have opened up or which ones are planned to open in the near future.

As I walk around, I take a close look at the bags people are carrying. The size, quantity and shape of the bags can usually yield some great info and gives me an informal “thermometer” on the “temperature” of the economy.

Here are some informal unscientific observations:

1. The parking lots seem to be filled with more and more Toyota & Honda vehicles than ever before but that isn’t probably too suprising is it? What is suprising is that I am seeing more and more Hyundai vehicles taking up spots. Is Hyundai’s aggressive pricing and warranty program going to make it the next Toyota?
2. The parking lot was packed and the inside was densely packed with window shoppers. I call them window shoppers because many few were carrying bags. Much to my surprise, there were many couples with babies in strollers patrolling the mall and the waiting line into the play area was about 15 minutes.
3. As always, where there was a great deal of activity and shopping was the food court. The usual suspects were packed: McDonalds, Chick-Fil-A, and Stone Cold Creamery.

4. I found it odd and amusing that the only place to park was near Sears and what was funny was that people were parking their cars near Sears but GOING OUT OF THEIR WAY to walk around the store and enter at alternative entrances. They could have easily entered Sears and walked through the mall to their destination but they preferred to walk around it! Is it time to sell Sears short?

5. The fact that many people were in the mall but weren’t shopping concerns me; it was a nice day outside and you’d expect people to do outdoor activities and only be in the mall to shop but that wasn’t the case. Additionally, gasoline prices have dropped from their highs of $3 to less than $2/gallon but this hasn’t spurred on any increase in shopping as far as I could tell.

We were only there for a short visit of about 35 minutes so I didn’t get to do my usual “analysis” of all the shops but I did get the “feeling” that retail is heading for a slump. We’ll see what happens in a month…..