Sat 11 Oct 2008
Banks Too Generous With Credit Now Too Stingy, Oh Puleeze!
Posted by RichSlick under Watch Out
[6] Comments
Americans seem to be getting angry that banks are now reducing credit card lines, HELOCs, and other credit instruments just months after they were complaining about banks being too generous and loose with lending. What gives?
It seems banks are in a double bind; damn if they do, damn if they don’t and this helps explain why the credit crisis is deepening and no one knows what to do at this point. Is the solution to reopen the credit generosity or continue tightening it?
Should people live within their means or borrow to meet their means? McCain now wants to buy all mortgages at full value and give those homes to people at a reduced mortgage principle -what generosity! I get to buy homes for everyone out there!
We’re in a death spiral here, as banks continue to cut credit lines, FICO scores will continue to deteriorate across the country which will make banks even LESS willing to lend. We are in a deflationary spiral and that is EXACTLY what will lead to a deep recession or even depression. Homes and autos are the first casualties as they are the more expensive ticket items but college education, small business lending and ultimately large corporate lending will all deflate exponentially as time progresses if things don’t change soon.
Holding debt during inflationary periods is great, holding debt during deflationary periods is deadly. I’ll be unwinding most of my debt in the coming weeks, including all arbitrage debt. Good luck.
October 12th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Could you explain a little more about the risk of arbitrage debt in the current situation? I have Credit Card arbitrage that is invested strictly in bank accounts under the FDIC limit. I understand the risk of a combined bank and FDIC failure, but I figure that a credit card balance will be the least of my worries if this happens. So aside from an FDIC failure, what am I risking, as long as I ensure that my interest income is at a rate higher than my interest expenses?
October 12th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
The risks:
1. Credit card company arbitrarily cuts credit limit thereby making you “over the limit” and charging “over the limit” fees.
2. Credit card company arbitrarily raises rate on your arbitrage debt claiming your FICO dropped because of credit line cuts or other reasons.
3. Credit card company merges with other bank making terms and conditions void.
4. FDIC isn’t REQUIRED to pay you back tomorrow or next week, they have up to 20 years to pay you back. If banks start failing, it’ll take 20 years to make everyone whole.
5. US Government buying ownership stakes in bank may alter cash withdrawal limits or payment schedules.
I don’t know your specific situation so I’m not sure what else may impact you but these are a few to consider.
October 12th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
The 20 years FDIC thing definitely makes me think. I do have a lot of cash available, but it is mostly in banks (all under FDIC limit) and spread between 3 credit unions, one bank and my mattress. 1-3 don’t worry me unless coupled with 4. If I get a rate change or credit limit change I’ll just pay the card off right away. They might squeeze a few pennies of interest out of my while the funds transfer, but it seems like a viable risk. I currently have about $60k in credit card arbitrage, and I’m pretty hesitant to give it up, but I’ve definitely considered it with current events. Any other thoughts to sway me?
October 13th, 2008 at 8:10 am
Do you have this money in savings accounts or CD’s?
This won’t be the last time arbitrage will be around. I actually expect 0% offers to come roaring back in about 4 to 6 months so the economy can get “rolling” again.
I am concerned that we may have more bank failures and have a huge mess if things don’t improve in which case zero percent offers won’t come back for a long time.
I’d say we’re at a 50/50 point. On the one hand we may fall into the abyss, on the other we may recover.
Personally, I don’t want to be in debt if it’s the abyss as cash on hand will be king (along with gold & silver). If we do get out of this mess then arbitrage will return back and I’ll jump back in.
It’s a matter of waiting a few months to get the answer.
October 13th, 2008 at 10:47 am
I’m using reward checking accounts, which are giving me 4.5%.
October 13th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Matt,
I can’t talk you into/out of what you’re doing. If it meets your risk/reward ratio and personal goals then it sounds like you’ve got a plan and a way out.
Believe me, I hate giving up about 50k worth of arbitrage cash but I don’t want to take any chances now; we are on the edge of a cliff here and tossing the baby up and down while on the edge is only something that Michael Jackson would do
Best of luck.