Thu 8 Mar 2007
Do Markets Go Up Forever?
Posted by RichSlick under MMO, Money Management
[6] Comments
There seems to be a great deal perpetual optimism when it comes to US investment markets. I think most people understand that the US stock market has its ups and downs and that over the long run, the US market has returned about 10% on average year over year.

Unfortunately, my investment philosophy doesn’t agree with the general consensus that the market will return 10% in the future for several reasons:
1. We have a huge boomer population – 78 million people will retire over the next 10 to 15 years and there will be a huge burden placed on the health care system, government, and boomers kids (to help support their parents). In the history of the US, this has never happened before and very few people talk about how it will impact the US economy or the US markets.
2. Once boomers retire they won’t pay taxes at the rate they have been paying in the past and they won’t pay health insurance premiums; a double blow for the rest of us as we have to pay to make up the difference. I am bullish on investing on the health care industry but hesitate because of possible government socialization and price controls.
3. Boomers will pull money out of the market to live off of right? They’ve invested in the market for the past 40 years to earn great returns and now they’ll pull that money out and spend it to pay for their living expenses.
Is it all gloom and doom? No, the key thing to understand, IMHO, is that the US markets will not increase at the same rate (on average) as they have in the past. Rather than 10% average growth, you’ll be lucky to get 4% to 6% returns on the market.
The smart thing to do is to squeeze more returns out of your investments doing untraditional and unconventional investment activities such as ETF Covered Calls. Conversely, you can look to invest in higher growth markets around the world such as Asia and Latin America.
I’ve chosen to do ETF Covered Calls because each covered call provides me with a defensive position on a down sliding markets and I’m able to profit from growth, appreciation and dividends.
My ultimate advice is for you to have a dual headed approach to wealth building. Get Rich Slow with traditional investment vehicles like 401k, IRA’s, Real Estate home ownership, savings but also have a plan to Get Rich Quick with more aggressive strategies such as ETF Covered Calls, Real Estate rentals/flipping, Company stock options, Options/Futures/Currency trading when you build up some decent wealth and/or advance in your career. The net result is that you will Get Rich Slick.
Check out to see what I see in ETFs and how I’m making them work for me.
6 Responses to “ Do Markets Go Up Forever? ”
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October 11th, 2007 at 10:31 am[...] were all the things about that I had written about before over the last two years now here, here and here. I’ve never really seen or heard anyone put it all together like I had [...]
March 8th, 2007 at 11:41 am
I think ETF Covered calls is not for everyone. As you said you can get rich quick or get rich slow. My point is you are getting rich somehow. Not everyone is in a hurry to become rich. I personally want to get rich slowly, I am not rushing I am already secure and comfortable as middle class for now.
Most people are comfortable with what they know. So futures and real estate flipping is not my expertise. You can lose money doing those things.
Especially when you are not clearly educated with investing in those areas.
Im not knocking you on how you make your (side) money. There is nothing wrong with that. But I know some people that lost a lot including their shirt by being aggressive with flipping, day trading, and future contracts.
It’s better to get rich slow than not to get rich at all.
March 8th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
Moneymonk,
One of the reasons I like this blog is because its different from every other blog that keeps repeating to save every cent, and invest very slowly.
I have the money and want to try to be rich as fast as possible. Again this is money that I can afford to blow. Not sure about this example but I’ll say it anyways. It is no different then going to Vegas and gambling. You don’t gamble with money meant for rent or bills.
To me there are way too many blogs showing how to get rich slow and not many blogs about getting rich fast. This site shows ONE way.
Like Slick has said before, what do you do when you’ve already have every typical savings suggestion covered. That is you max your roth, you max your 401k, you have 6-12month emergency fund, and you have a house or two? What do you do then with extra capital? For me that means having fun, doing stuff like trying to get rich as fast as possible through alternative investments, that the safe investor would otherwise avoid.
March 8th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
Very well said Jake. My blog is dedicated to people just like you. I max out 401k, roths, savings and have a house. What more to do with extra income? I could blow it buying crap but instead I invest in things that will hopefully preserve or increase in value (gold, art work, etc) in addition to systems for getting rich quick!
I only wish I had more time in the day to write about other investment activities but it’s getting harder and harder just maintaining this blog!
March 11th, 2007 at 4:33 am
Well, as for 2, that isn’t happening in my country (Portugal). The government changed the rules and retirement started paying taxes (IRS) like a normal salary. I think several others are doing the same and will do the same to balance things up. In the USA case that might be more of a problem if there’s double taxation (I’m not aware of the nitty-gritty detail of IRAs).
As for getting the money out of the market, I’m not so sure. It’s not like the money is getting out of the economy. The pension funds will get smaller, obviously, but because the money is spent in the day-to-day life. I don’t think that buying at walmart is taking money out of the market…
March 13th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
Good post. I share your skepticism about the growth of the economy.
Earning more is an excellent way to build up wealth. Say you’re saving $500/month and you save just half of your income from a $1000/month side business. You’ve just doubled your savings rate.