March 10, 2000 was the day the Nasdaq hit its highest point of 5048.62 and eight years later, the Nasdaq still hasn’t returned to its peak and has hovered around 2200 for the past 8 years until the big drop these past few days down to 1645 yesterday.   Although past performance is no indicator of future performance, if we run a parallel of the Dow peaking at 14,164 then will what we can expect is the Dow hovering at 50% to 60% of that peak for the next 8 years then that will translate to a Dow of 7080 to 8500 after we find a bottom.

This isn’t a fancy elliot wave analysis wrapped in a Fibonacci sequence subordinated by prime numbers, it’s just a simple observation from what happened with the Nasdaq a short period ago.   I’ve seen comparisons of the Dow to the 70′s market and the crash of ’29 but the world is a bit different from those eras and I don’t think apply just right.