Tue 7 Apr 2009
Is Technological Advancement The Problem With The Economy?
Posted by RichSlick under Uncategorized
[3] Comments
If you’ve ever watched Star Trek or most science fiction shows you’ll inevitably encounter “teleportation” devices that can “beam” or transfer one object from one point to some other point, usually a distant point tens or hundreds of miles away. I usually do thought experiments and ponder what would happen if such a device existed today and how it would impact the economy.
For starters, if such a device existed, I would imagine that the following industries would almost immediately collapse:
Shipping – No need for oil tankers, cargo ships, or other bulk carriers since goods can be “teleported” from point A to point B with no problem.
Airlines – No need to “fly” anywhere if you can “beam” there instantly.
Air Shipping – No need to “fly” goods anywhere if you can “beam” them there instantly. If teleportation devices could be installed on every home then UPS, Fedex and others would disappear too.
Hotels – If you could “beam” back and forth from your favorite vacation spot, why would you need a hotel? The entire industry wouldn’t collapse but a large portion of hotels would eventually succumb.
Car Rental – Once again, if you could “beam” to your destination, why bother with a rental car?
Auto Industry – If you could beam from home to your place of employment, the grocery store or your favorite vacation spot would you ever need a car?
Now that air travel, shippers, autos and other industries have disappeared you can look at what other industries are no longer needed. If planes, trains and automobiles are no longer needed then oil is no longer needed in the quantities that are currently being consumed so a significant portion of the oil & gas industry would collapse.
You can take this thought experiment in any direction and I did with a friend over a long discussion about other technology advancements that could further destroy the economy. If a cure for the common cold is discovered then there isn’t a need for NyQuil, Sudafed, and hundreds of other cold remedies. The marketing, sales, production, distribution and other personnel associated with the cold remedy would be made obsolete.
My friend argued that we would always have new jobs and new innovations to keep people working but my argument is simple: there is an initial burst of jobs created initially but then the jobs go away and people don’t have the time or money to constantly retrain onto something else. In our teleportation thought experiment, initially many new jobs would be created with the creation of teleportation units, installation and eventually maintenance of units but what do you do when you reach saturation? Worst yet, what if you could simply teleport a teleportation device then you would saturate the entire planet within a year then all the installation jobs are gone. The only jobs left would be repair and maintenance similar to AC repair and in the process, millions of jobs have disappeared!
Ultimately, this begs the question, with the population continuing to grow exponentially and technological advancement growing exponentially, what will members of a society do in the future, particularly at a time when wage deflation is spreading throughout the world?
April 7th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Very hard topic. I hope we get there!!
Probably with more technology we can spend more time helping other human beings, the planet, the Universe.
Expense more time enjoying life.
Jaime
April 8th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Interesting topic. I think some of your conclusions assume certain aspects of the teleporter invention though.
For example, what if the energy to power the teleporter had characteristics that made it impractical to use batteries, or even household current? Then everyone might need more *gas* to power a special generator and you’re back to needing to distribute lots of oil.
Or what if you could only beam from teleporter to teleporter? Then car rentals might boom for a period until public teleporters were as commonplace as street corners. But you’d still likely need a rental car when you go to those “remote” vacation spots where teleporters are rare.
Etc.
April 9th, 2009 at 9:22 am
True, not every single car would become obsolete but it would be enough of a change to dramatically change the workforce.
For example, labor on farms was replaced by tractors and other machinery so the workers went into “distributing” driving trucks to deliver the goods the farm produces but now you won’t need the worker (because of tractors) and you won’t need the drivers (because of teleporters) so where do the workers go?
We keep compressing the technology:worker ratio to the point where we will all become relatively useless.
And energy technology will advance, what if cold fusion became a reality? Forget about solar, gas, and any other fuel if you could use simple water to make unlimited energy!