Mon 16 Mar 2009
Millions of Foreclosures = Millions of Bad FICO Scores?
Posted by RichSlick under Observations
[3] Comments
If millions of homes are being foreclosed then it must follow that millions of previous home owners now have trashed FICO scores. There are supposedly at least 25 million bad subprime loans in or near default so it follows that at least 25 million or so people have had their scores trashed. If “bad credit” stays on credit report files for at least seven years and if the majority if these loans are going into default from 2005 thru 2009 then any real credit recovery won’t be feasible for at least 2012 (2005 + 7 = 2012) thru perhaps 2016.
Of course there are way more than just subprime loans in default and that adds a few other million so from the sheer number of trashed credit, it’s not realistically feasible to see a recovery of epic proportions anytime soon. Making the situation much worse is the fact that banks are cutting credit line exacerbating the problem for credit card holders. Many people are seeing credit lines cut in half or worse and the resulting effect is a significant drop in FICO scores across the board. The result here is even more FICO scores trashed.
The question that is begged of course is what happens when nearly everyone has a trashed FICO score? Does 600 become the new 700 on the FICO ladder? Does everyone become subprime at some point? Will we all have to pay 30% for loans of any kind?
March 17th, 2009 at 7:46 am
I think it just means that the people that have kept their credit ratings will receive great rates later on as lenders will fight over the greatly decreased pool of responsible borrowers.
You’re painting a lot of gloom and doom lately, and as far as the federal government spending and banks go, I’m with you. But for individuals? I think this recession in the long run could be good for the country in that people might finally start going back to being fiscally responsible. They’re being forced to.
March 17th, 2009 at 8:05 am
Every time I think we’re finally turning the corner, there is a batch of really bad news that comes out from somewhere. If things can remain stable from now thru May, we’ll be over the worst of it and on our way out of this mess.
If things get worse between now and May then it’s all gloom and doom.
March 17th, 2009 at 8:38 am
Very true. I’m being cautiously hopeful. On the bright side, I jumped on GE when it was in the low 6s
They might have slashed dividends for now but that’s one company I can see coming out of this just fine in the long run.