So I’m having lunch with a co-worker and we start talking about this Obama health care deal.    The one thing I can’t wrap my head around is why the thing doesn’t start until 2014.   Seriously, why wait nearly 4 years to get started but then my co-worker mentions that the taxation goes into effect immediately in order to “pre-pay” for the coverage in the future.

I’m not sure if that’s true or not but it did bring up a couple of interesting scenarios.   According to this Asia Times article, by 2014 all of the G7 countries will have a debt to gross domestic product of 100% of above.

By 2014, International Monetary Fund official John Lipsky remarked March 21, the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of the Group of Seven countries will reach 100%, and the governments of the industrial world will carry the highest debt burden since shortly after the end of World War II.

So while perhaps many people are cheering that only rich “evil” people are being taxed because the large tax bite comes from people earning 200k to 250k or more then it may be that a large portion of the population will be earning above the 200k mark in 4 years.   Does that sound implausible?   If the median salary today is around 53k then it would only take four consecutive raises of 30% to get that up to 150k by 2014.   I know everyone’s thinking that a 30% raise for the next four years is pretty silly but don’t forget that the Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of dollars into the economy and they’re floating out there.  I’ve written about spotting 20% energy inflation priced into markets a few times already just into 2012 and energy inflation always seems to grow exponentially too!

In another scenario and discussion, we discussed that perhaps the delay till 2014 is to make sure a few thousand sick boomers die off before this thing goes into effect to save money.   It seems that insurance companies are perfectly within their rights to deny or limit coverage now till 2014 so that will definitely kill some people that have serious medical problems.

Speaking of boomers, it seems that every day 10,000 new boomers hit the retirement dole so since there are 1,380 days till January 1, 2014 then I guess 13.8 million boomers won’t pull the trigger early and retire early knowing that they won’t have health care until 2014 now.

No matter which way you look at it, there is huge critical mass building toward the 2012-2015 years and something is going to make a huge “crunch” sound when it happens and it’s beginning to sound a lot like hyperinflation