Thu 9 Oct 2008
Back in February of this year, I wrote this post entitled, “2008 Will Be The Year We Should’ve All Gotten Out of the Market” and I received three comments from dountoothers, fatherez and broknowchlatr as follows:
I’m sorry but I hear a chicken little.
Since 1945, none of the 11 recorded recessions lasted longer than 16 months and none since 1982 lasted longer than 8.
When there is blood on wall street I’ll be there buying up all of the bargains.
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
-Dountoothers
And from Fathersez,
For everyone who takes the market falls as buying opportunities, there will be someone else saying that this time it is different.
We went through the Asian Financial Crisis about 10 years ago. Then too, I remember being told that the end of the world as we knew it was near. Stocks will be worth nothing.
I am no expert at predicting how the recent market movements will pan out, but I am betting that there will be a world as we know it.
and finally from broknowrchlatr
I don’t think baby boomers retiring really affects the market that much.
Its not like there are 80 million Americans retiring with $300k that they are going to start draining out of the market. There is a small percent that are completely loaded. There are a ton (prolly 60% or more) that have no where near enough saved. They will draw on whats left of pensions, social security and a small ammount of other savings.
Then of course, there will be people in the middle that draw a lot from 401k plans and IRAs.
The market will probably make some strange moves up and down in 2008, but will mroe likely than not end up higher than ist started.
If you really believe this, why don’t we see you mentionning making huge investments in funds like the Prudent Bear?
I’m curious as to what these three commenters think now. DoUntoOthers, are you buying up stocks now? If so what are you buying? Fathersez, is this the same as that Asian crisis or worse? If so, how?
Broknowrchlatr, what do you think now about boomers and the crisis as 2 trillion dollar just got vaporized from the market?
I’m trying to understand the changes to your points of view, if any, given our current crisis. I’m working on a second post and will follow up if I get some responses.
October 9th, 2008 at 9:02 am
I don’t think baby boomers retiring really affects the market that much.
This is the most correct thing I have read in ages. See, the secret is now the boomers won’t be ABLE to retire!