Now that I’ve created some apps largely relying on probabilities to make informed trades, I decided to play with AI and try to figure out what the best window would be for a market crash this year.
When
The answer came back sometime between June 18th and August 21st for this year.
What
It’s more likely that it’s a tech crash than anything else so I am eager to see what happens. I have put a reminder on my calendar for August 21 and will write a follow up post one way or another.
How
How big a crash? The correction is projected to be somewhere between 27% to 31% based on the data.
Where
This was strictly limited to the U.S. stock market data. There are various things happening with Japanese bonds, Euro & Swiss banks, and pretty much everywhere else around the world but the data I used was strictly U.S. stock market data.
Who
I won’t share the data or methodology because it’s probably wrong but in case it somehow happens to be correct, I will reuse the data to predict the next one. I am skeptical AI will be right but just in case, I am going to put some “gambling” money on the line and take a position on this possible correction for fun.
Please don’t invest any money based on this post, this is strictly for entertainment purposes. If AI is good at predicting stock market crashes everyone would or will be using it which will then mean the market becomes distorted and a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Share The Wealth
Are you using AI for probabilistic determination yet?