Do you know the name Transmeta? If you don’t, here’s a little blurb about it from Wikipedia:
Transmeta: A semiconductor designer that attempted to challenge Intel, its IPO in November 2000 was the last successful technology IPO until the IPO of Google in 2004. The company shut down in 2009 after failing to execute.
Do you know the name Cerebras?
Cerebras Systems Inc. is an American artificial intelligence (AI) company with offices in Sunnyvale, San Diego, Toronto, and Bangalore, India. Cerebras builds computer systems for complex AI deep learning applications. The company is known for developing wafer-scale AI chips that use an entire silicon wafer as a supersized processor.
Cerebras went IPO today and it is trading around $350 as I write this post. Transmeta went IPO right around the start of the dot com crash. I’m not saying Cerebras will go bankrupt, it seems poised to do well if the AI trends continue unabated but the parallels are a bit eerie.
It got me thinking about S&P drawdowns and I asked AI to produce an inforgraphic about the largest drawdowns since the dot com crash and the causes.
I don’t know where we go from here or what comes next but I suspect it won’t end well when the gas runs out of the bubble.
The Iran conflict is driving oil prices up, inflation up, and the majority of drawdowns in that infographic are caused by sudden lurches in central bank rates.
I remained hedged and increased my cash positions in this market. I am being strategic about my trades and the only thing I advise is to remain cautious.
By the way, I did put a bid in for CBRS today but I doubt it will fill. It’s trading too rich for me.
Share The Wealth
Do you think we’re in an AI bubble or not?